Riedel Research

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Welcome to the Riedel Research Group website!

Our 30+ analysts on the ground in 15 countries around the world provide equity research and recommendations on over 300 companies in the emerging markets. These insights and recommendations are free from any conflict of interest from investment banking as we are totally independent.

We just do one thing - analyze investment opportunities to help you make the best investment decisions possible.

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Recent Reports


5/7/2012	China Data Proven to Predict YUM China SSS - Outlook for Trends and Stock Price Grim
	In December 2011 we found a tight relationship between Employment Expectations in our China Consumer Sentiment Survey and YUM same store sales (SSS) in China. 1Q12 China SSS were in line with our forecast of 15.5% and increased 14% YoY. We forecast SSS growth of just 2.3% for 2Q12.

5/7/2012	Risk On/Off - Global Risk Aversion to Fall in 2012: EM Equities to Benefit
	Since the Financial Crisis of 2008/09 global equity markets, (including Emerging Markets) have been largely driven by fear and uncertainty as opposed to fundamental valuations. We introduce the new Riedel Research Global Consumer Senitment Index (GCSI) to measure the extent that uncertainty and fear are driving equity markets globally.

5/7/2012	Consumer Sentiment in China Falls as Inflation Fears Rise - Auto Sales to Decline
	After staging a full recovery since late 2011 and reaching a “Rationally Optimistic” level in March the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) slipped slightly into the “Rationally Pessimistic” range in April.

5/7/2012	Britannia - $1.2 bn Mkt Cap Biscuit Co. in India Sees Growth from Niche Products - BUY
	Leading biscuit marketing companies in India with 25% market share in Indian branded biscuit industry. We initiate coverage on Britannia with a target price of INR620 per share, an upside of about 10.4%.

5/7/2012	Trade-weighted Consumer Sentiment Index Shows Exports from China and Czech Could Provide Upside Surprise in 2012
	The Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) can be used to gain insight into when export demand will recover. We expect Consumer Sentiment of both China and the Czech Republic's main trading partners to recover from low levels in 2012, as a result exports from China and the Czech Republic are expected to benefit significantly.

5/7/2012	Indo Telecom Overview - CAPEX to Rise as Data Services Expand - BUY TLK
	Since the end 2011, we had conversations with PT Telkom management as well as with industry participants: PT Telkom’s competitors, regulator (BRTI), distributors, and product vendors. Our conclusion: data services will be a key area of focus in 2012.

5/7/2012	EDU - Leader in Tutoring and English Language in China - BUY
	New Oriental is the leader in tutoring and classes for students studying English in major Chinese cities. The company opened 81 new schools in 3Q12. The P/E band suggests an upside of 97% and a target price of USD53 by the end of May 2013. BUY

5/7/2012	SONDA - Benefitting from Strong Growth in Latin American IT Services - BUY
	We initiate coverage on SONDA. This leading an IT service provider in Latin America is growing both organically and through acquisition. Through DCF analysis, we derive a target price of CLP1,700 which implies a 15% upside potential and recommend a BUY rating on the shares.

5/7/2012	Arshiya - Logistics, Rail and Supply Chain Leader in India - High Growth - BUY
	Arshiya International Limited (ARSHIYA) provides integrated supply chain and logistics infrastructure solutions in India and internationally. We initiate coverage on small-cap ($170 mn) ARSHIYA with a Buy rating (High Risk) and a target price of INR180 per share, an upside of about 20%.

5/7/2012	Singapore REITs Trading Strategy - Borrowing/Lending Allowed Effective Monday - Buy Retail vs. Industrial Commercial REITS
	Singapore Exchange (SGX) announced that effective May 7, 2012 REITs will be eligible for securities borrowing and lending allowing investors to go both long and short REITs. This development will enable investors to profit from the difference in tourism growth rates and GDP growth rates.